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Sustained iPhone demand points to 2026 upside for Apple – Gene Munster

Tuesday October 14, 2025. 09:01 PM , from Mac Daily News
Sustained iPhone demand points to 2026 upside for Apple – Gene Munster
Apple’s iPhone 17
Three weeks into the iPhone 17 cycle, global iPhone lead time data indicates that demand is slightly higher than last year. Veteran Apple analyst Gene Munster predicts a modest return to iPhone unit growth next year, surpassing the Street’s 5% growth consensus.
Gene Munster for GeneMunster.com:


Three weeks after the release date, iPhone 17 lead times globally (eight countries) were 2.29 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.02 weeks, accounting for a 13% gap. That’s the same 13% gap we observed two weeks ago (2.45 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.16 weeks). The bottom line is that three weeks in, lead times this year are about 13% longer than last year…
I expect a fractional miss on the September iPhone whisper number, but this will be more than offset by positive December guidance and estimates moving above the whisper for FY26…
I expect September to come in at 9% growth — above the printed estimate of 7% but below the whisper of 10%. Overall, I would consider that outcome good enough, since attention will likely shift to December guidance, which I expect to come in ahead of both the published estimates and the whisper number.
For the December quarter, the Street is currently expecting 7.4% growth, a 0.4% increase from a month ago. I believe the whisper number has reached 9%. Apple likely will not give detailed iPhone guidance for December but will provide enough direction for investors to back into a growth rate. The bottom line is that I expect the December iPhone revenue guide to be above 10%.
For FY26, expectations call for 5% growth (unchanged over the past two weeks). My sense is that the whisper number for FY26 still hovers around the published 5% estimate, given the wide gap between the December quarter and the full year. In the end, I now expect FY26 growth to exceed 8%.


MacDailyNews Take: If so, that’s good news for AAPL in 2026.
Apple will release Q425 results on Thursday, October 30, 2025 after market close, right around 4:30 p.m. PDT / 1:30 p.m. EDT.
Apple’s conference call to discuss Q425 results and business updates is scheduled right after, on October 30, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. It can be listened to live here.


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The post Sustained iPhone demand points to 2026 upside for Apple – Gene Munster appeared first on MacDailyNews.
https://macdailynews.com/2025/10/14/sustained-iphone-demand-points-to-2026-upside-for-apple-gene-mun...

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