J.P. Morgan expects ‘stronger than expected revenue’ for Apple’s Q225 due Thursday

In its latest note to clients, J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee expressed optimism, citing a favorable setup for better-than-expected revenue and gross margin outcomes despite demand disruptions and tariff-related cost pressures. The firm sees potential for increased Q3 revenue, partly driven by short-term effects of the U.S.-China tariff battle, and remains confident in Apple’s long-term AI-driven growth prospects.
J.P. Morgan analysts:
‎

We are positive on AAPL shares with a near-term view into a positive set up into earnings with the likelihood of better-than-feared outcomes in relation to both revenues and gross margins, with investor sentiment and the share price looking to price in demand disruption as well as cost headwinds stemming from tariffs on China. On that account, we expect modest pull-forward in demand, partly driven by consumer upgrades and partly by channel inventory fill ahead of potential price raises, to support stronger than expected revenue outcomes in F2Q (March-end) and likely sustain into F3Q (June-end).
Similarly on gross margins, we expect most iPhone shipments in the near-term to be addressed through inventory built prior to the tariffs limiting headwinds to costs. As a result of the above drivers, we are now forecasting F2Q revenues to come in ahead of guidance (5.5% y/y revenue growth vs. guidance for low-to-mid single-digit increase) and the company to guide favorably to low- single to mid-single digit revenue growth again while keeping some modest conservatism in the outlook associated with uncertain macro.
On EPS, we expect the above revenue drivers to translate to modest upsides to expectations. While understandably there are already expectations for pull-forwards to challenge calendar 2H 2025 demand, we think given the pullback in shares (down -16% YTD and trading at 26x consensus FY26 EPS), investors are likely to reward the resilience near-term, which will at the bare minimum translate to lower downside risk to FY25 estimates even on a slowdown/digestion.
Looking ahead, as outlined in our recent publications… there still remains significant uncertainty for the hardware industry and Apple, as tariff negotiations and potentially new tariffs like semiconductors remain key watchpoints, but the resilience of revenue and earnings estimates as well as a proven track record of earnings protection in downturns remains key to investors still looking at AAPL shares favorably despite the uncertainty.

‎
MacDailyNews Note: J.P. Morgan reiterated its “Overweight” rating, meaning the analysts believe AAPL is likely to outperform its industry or the market over the coming months, alongside its $245 target.
Apple will also provide its annual update to its cash dividend for investors alongside any additional updates to its buyback program when it releases Q225 results on Thursday, May 1st at 1:30 p.m. PDT / 4:30 p.m. EDT. As usual, we’ll have those results for you on our homepage as soon as they’re available and then cover Apple’s conference call with live notes on May 1st at 2:00 p.m. PDT / 5:00 p.m. EDT.

‎
Please help support MacDailyNews — and enjoy subscriber-only articles, comments, chat, and more — by subscribing to our Substack: macdailynews.substack.com. Thank you!
Support MacDailyNews at no extra cost to you by using this link to shop at Amazon.
The post J.P. Morgan expects ‘stronger than expected revenue’ for Apple’s Q225 due Thursday appeared first on MacDailyNews.