IDC predicts worldwide smartphone market to grow 2.3% in 2025

Apple’s iPhone 16e
Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 2.3% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.26 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The 2.3% increase will represent the second successive year of improvement after a 6.1% growth in 2024. Related to this, TAM slightly increased from prior forecasts thanks to acceleration of the Android market, particularly in China where national subsidies and pent-up demand for device upgrades reversed earlier years of decline. IDC expects growth to continue in low single digits throughout the forecast period with a 1.6% CAGR (2024-2029) due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and headwinds from growing used smartphone market.
“Android is expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, with 2.5% year-on-year growth, fueled by 5.6% growth in China, thanks to the new subsidies program by the Chinese government which is expected to mostly benefit Android as opposed to Apple,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “While iOS will decline 1.9% in China this year due to ongoing challenges, globally it is forecast to increase 1.8% thanks to strong growth in the U.S., Apple’s largest market, coupled with rapid growth of 18% and 9% YoY in emerging markets like India and Indonesia. The ongoing rollout of Apple Intelligence and the recently launched mid-priced iPhone 16E is also expected to fuel demand and keep average selling prices (ASPs) elevated for Apple and will help it capture 45% value share in 2025 despite only 19% of shipments.”

“The U.S. smartphone market is expected to grow 3.3% in 2025, even with the new 10% tariffs imposed on goods from China, including smartphones,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “An aging installed base ready for renewal will positively impact shipments for the year. Although the new tariffs will slightly increase the average selling prices, most consumers in the U.S. purchase smartphones through installment plans, often combined with trade-ins, via the telecom channel. As a result, any increase to ASP in the US is less likely to impact purchase decisions for most consumers.”
Global Smartphone ASP is forecast to grow slightly to $434 in 2025 despite the boost of low-end Androids this year, thanks to the simultaneous premiumization on the high end which continues in full swing. It is forecast to maintain at this level and remain flat with slight decline year-over-year throughout the forecast period to end at $424 by 2029.
MacDailyNews Note: As we wrote yesterday, “Expect specific exemptions from U.S. import tariffs for important Apple products.”

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