President Trump’s second term is good news for Apple, TikTok, and Tesla – Gene Munster

Apple CEO Tim Cook laughs with former U.S. President Donald Trump as the news media leave the room after the two men spoke while participating in an American Workforce Policy Advisory Board meeting in the White House State Dining Room in Washington, U.S., March 6, 2019. (photo: Reuters/Leah Millis)
Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster outlines what he believes to be the reasons for America’s stock market reaction to the re-election of President Trump and what it means for tech investors over the next 4 years. Munster emphasizes an important point: “What’s going on with AI is much bigger than any political policies. Both mega-cap and small-cap tech have a green field ahead to capitalize on the AI paradigm shift.”
Gene Munster for Deepwater Asset Management:
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Three reasons for the market move include (weight of total move %):
1. Money on the sidelines jumping back into the market (50%)
2. Reduced regulatory environment (40%)
3. Proposed Corporate Tax Cuts (10%)
• Apple: Cook’s relationship with Trump is strong and we expect the company to avoid the proposed blanket tariffs. Apple is seen as a global symbol of US strength and innovation, a brand that Trump will be reluctant to damage. Regarding Apple’s search deal with Google, my view is evolving and I now believe the outcome is a coin toss given Google’s recent loss regarding default search payment, which was initiated under Trump’s administration. Lastly, I don’t expect the DOJ to pressure Apple around App Store take rates.
• Meta: In March, Trump posted “If you get rid of TikTok, Facebook and Zuckerschmuck will double their business. I don’t want Facebook, who cheated in the last Election, doing better. They are a true Enemy of the People!” Needless to say, TikTok is going to be around for a while.
• Tesla: At the highest level, a Trump administration is a meaningful positive for the company, because Elon is not only in Trump’s inner circle but has become almost a family member over the past four months. The relationships will likely make it easier for FSD to receive NHTSA approval, which would be a huge win for the company’s autonomy ambitions. Additionally, Tesla’s corporate tax rate could decline from 21% to 15%, and tariffs could keep Chinese EV competitors out of the US market.

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MacDailyNews Take: As for Google’s search deal with Apple, Munster writes, “The outcome is a coin toss. If the deal gets voided, I believe it would be a net positive for Google and increase its operating income by 5-15% despite the company’s recent comments that voiding the agreement would have ‘unintended’ consequences.”
Munster is likely wrong about that. Google is an ad company masquerading as a search engine. Apple has a lock on the top demographics – you know, the people with money and the proven will to spend it. Losing Apple product users leaves Google with just a bunch of cheapskate Android settlers and Windows PC sufferers. Google’s ad business will suffer as a result.
Google pays Apple tens of billions of dollars annually to be Safari’s default search engine because Mac, iPhone, and iPad users are extremely demographically desirable (to any company that like to make profits) versus those who settle for Mac, iPhone, and iPad knockoffs.
In September 2023, Asymco‘s Horace Dediu did the math and arrived at the conclusion that Apple iPhone owners are 7.4 times more valuable than those who settle for Android phones.
Real iPhones vs. Poor Man’s iPhones. Same as it ever was. — MacDailyNews, April 22, 2022

The bottom line: Those who settle for Android devices are not equal to iOS users. The fact is that iOS users are worth significantly more than Android settlers to developers, advertisers, third-party accessory makers (speakers, cases, chargers, cables, etc.), vehicle makers, musicians, TV show producers, movie producers, book authors, carriers, retailers, podcasters… The list goes on and on.
The quality of the customer matters. A lot.
Facile “analyses” that look only at market (unit) share, equating one Android settler to one iOS user, make a fatal error by incorrectly equating users of each platform one-to-one.
When it comes to mobile operating systems, all users are simply not equal. – SteveJack, MacDailyNews, November 15, 2014

Android is pushed to users who are, in general:
a) confused about why they should be choosing an iPhone over an inferior knockoff and therefore might be less prone to understand/explore their devices’ capabilities or trust their devices with credit card info for shopping; and/or
b) enticed with “Buy One Get One Free,” “Buy One, Get Two or More Free,” or similar ($100 Gift Cards with Purchase) offers.
Neither type of customer is the cream of the crop when it comes to successful engagement or coveted demographics; closer to the bottom of the barrel than the top, in fact. Android can be widespread and still demographically inferior precisely because of the way in which and to whom Android devices are marketed. Unending BOGO promos attract a seemingly unending stream of cheapskate freetards just as inane, pointless TV commercials about robots or blasting holes in concrete walls attract meatheads and dullards, not exactly the best demographics…
Google made a crucial mistake: They gave away Android to “partners” who pushed and continue to push the product into the hands of the exact opposite type of user that Google needs for Android to truly thrive. Hence, Android is a backwater of second-rate, or worse, app versions that are only downloaded when free or ad-supported – but the Android user is notoriously cheap, so the ads don’t sell for much because they don’t work very well. You’d have guessed that Google would have understood this, but you’d have guessed wrong.
Google built a platform that depends heavily on advertising support, but sold it to the very type of customer who’s the least likely to patronize ads.
iOS users are the ones who buy apps, so developers focus on iOS users. iOS users buy products, so accessory makers focus on iOS users. iOS users have money and the proven will to spend it, so vehicle makers focus on iOS users. Etcetera. – MacDailyNews, November 26, 2012

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