UBS analyst doubts Apple will see an iPhone supercycle

With Apple shares up 38% from their April lows, a UBS analyst claimed investors’ “optimism is misplaced,” as an iPhone supercycle may not materialize.
Emily Bary for MarketWatch:
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UBS analyst David Vogt isn’t buying the artificial-intelligence euphoria around Apple Inc. that has sent its stock up 38% from its April lows.
“Following WWDC, confidence in an iPhone ‘AI supercycle’ in [fiscal 2025] has reached a fever pitch,” he wrote, noting that “the most optimistic scenarios” imply the prospect of more than 250 million iPhone unit sales next fiscal year, and some estimates run upwards of 260 million.
But Vogt said the “optimism is misplaced,” as he doubts Apple AAPL will see an iPhone “supercycle.”
“Our analysis of smartphone demand by region, prior cycles, income demographic data and carrier subsidies argues for a more modest cycle next year,” he wrote. “Therefore, we forecast iPhone revenue growth of 2.4%, roughly 400 [basis points] below consensus and almost 1,000 [basis points] below the rosiest forecasts.”

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MacDailyNews Take: Vogt has a neutral rating and $190 target price on Apple’s stock – currently some $40 below the stock’s actual price – and has been iCal’ed for future use.
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