Deepwater: Apple will acquire Peloton in 2024

Over the last seven years, Deepwater Asset Management has offered predictions for the year ahead. Here’s some of what they’re anticipating for 2024.
Deepwater Asset Management:
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• Apple will bring generative AI to Siri. Apple’s Ajax foundation model will power a generative AI version of Siri (likely announced at WWDC), adding more personalization and natural conversation to Siri.
• Apple will not announce any additional devices in the Vision product line. It has been reported Apple is already working on a cheaper ($1,500), less advanced version of the soon to be released Vision Pro headset. We believe Vision Pro needs time to gain traction with developers in the market before a lesser model is released. We expect Apple will sell between 400k-500k Vision Pro’s in 2024.
• Apple will acquire Peloton. Apple will look to bolster their workout segment in 2024 by adding fitness equipment to compliment the Watch and fitness tracking software. Peloton has a loyal subscriber base of about 3 million users that will add about $1.7B to Apple’s subscription revenue, additionally this fits well into Apple’s continued investment in health and wellness.

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MacDailyNews Take: Yes, yes, and no (unless the price hits a crazy point that basically forces Apple to do the deal).
Another interesting prediction that doesn’t mention Apple, but might well involve the company: “Reddit will be acquired for their data. A company with a LLM will buy Reddit [from which] to train its model.”
Peloton has nothing to offer that Apple can’t do better if they so desire. — MacDailyNews, February 7, 2022
That said:
If Apple were to buy Peloton, it wouldn’t be for bikes or treadmills… If Apple were to buy Peloton, it would be for Peloton’s 2.49 million connected fitness subscribers. — MacDailyNews, January 21, 2022
If Apple acquired Peloton, they’d do so with the intention of sunsetting it and moving the Peloton subscriber base to Apple Fitness+ with Apple Watches, iPhones, iPads, and Apple TVs.
It’s just a matter of math: How much Apple figures each Peloton subscriber is worth if they move to Apple Fitness+ (plus hardware purchases that recur over time) and how many of those 2.49 million do they believe they can convert. — MacDailyNews, January 31, 2022
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