Strong recovery for Apple iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max expected in January

DSCC’s David Naranjo has evaluated the impact to the iPhone 14 Pro models in light of the turbulence of the CCP’s “Zero COVID” lockdowns that occurred at the Foxconn facility in Zhengzhou, China – “iPhone City” – in October – November. Apple had issued a warning during that time that the iPhone 14 Pro models would be temporarily impacted. Naranjo expects a strong recovery for Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max in January.
Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro and flagship iPhone 14 Pro MaxiPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, iPhone 14 Pro, iPhone 14 Pro Max
David Naranjo for DSCC:

In the latest survey of our supply chain sources for 2022, we found that the panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Pro model were reduced by 3%, while the iPhone 14 Pro Max were reduced by 2%. This translates to a total impact of about 1.5M panels for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max through December 2022. The estimates do not show any panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Plus in December. Since the Foxconn facility primarily produced Pro models, the reduction for the iPhone 14 Plus is likely a demand issue versus the impact of the Foxconn facility turbulence.
iPhone 14 panel shipments are expected to reach 101M panels through December, which represents a 10% Y/Y increase when compared to the iPhone 13 panel shipments in 2021. As a result of the impact to the iPhone 14 Pro models, the iPhone 14 panel shipments had a 24% share, up from 23% in prior estimates, iPhone 14 Plus with 13%, iPhone 14 Pro with 26% versus 27% in prior estimates and the iPhone 14 Pro Max with 36% versus 37% in prior estimates. In 2021, the iPhone 13 had a 41% share, followed by the iPhone 13 Pro Max with 28% and the iPhone 13 Pro with 23%.
Comparing panel supplier share between the 2022 iPhone 14 models and 2021 iPhone 13 models, SDC is expected to have a 74% share, down from 76%, followed by LGD with 16%, down from 21% and BOE with 9%, up from 3%.
What is more telling is what is projected to happen in January 2023. The iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have the lion’s share of panel shipments in January. 15M panel shipments are expected to ship with the Pro models accounting for 80% of those shipment with the iPhone 14 Pro Max accounting for 51% of that total. In December, China relaxed their COVID-19 policies and Foxconn stabilized the situation in the Zhengzhou China facility. The increased focus on the Pro models is part recovery to what happened in October and demand issues. From all accounts, consumers are willing to pay the additional $200 for the 6.7” iPhone 14 Pro versus the 6.7” iPhone 14 Plus.
The growth and share gains for the iPhone 14 series is even greater when January is included. When January is included and comparing the iPhone 13 panel shipments to iPhone 14 panel shipments, panel shipments are expected to increase 14% Y/Y to 117M panels.

MacDailyNews Take: Good news for Apple’s iPhone is coming in early 2023.
These iPhone 14 Pro sales are merely deferred, not lost. Some may shift down to iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus, but most buyers will simply wait for supply to catch up amidst strong demand. – MacDailyNews, November 16, 2022
Even before the iPhone 14 range was unveiled, we predicted heavy demand for the Pro models over prior years because Apple seemed determined to better differentiate the Pro over the base models.
Apple should have been doing this prior, but it’s good to see some additional differentiation between entry-level and “Pro” iPhone which will, of course, tilt more buyers to iPhone Pro models, increasing Apple’s iPhone ASP. The expected removal of the inelegant kludge (notch) in favor of a more refined pill and hole punch design exclusively in the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will also help differentiate the Pro models from the non-Pro iPhones later this year, moving the mix toward higher-end iPhones. – MacDailyNews, July 6, 2022
Apple iPhone mix is easily going to be the strongest ever. Do not be surprised with the reports that Apple has “cut iPhone 14 orders,” meaning iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus. The company will likely be increasing iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max orders to reflect the strong mix which bodes very well, of course for Apple’s iPhone average selling price (ASP). – MacDailyNews, September 14, 2022
China’s CCP threw a monkey wrench into the spokes, disrupting iPhone 14 Pro supply just in time for Christmas. However, also as we predicted, the “Zero COVID” nonsense has gone by the wayside in China now which bodes well for Apple’s fiscal 2023 second quarter ending in March.
There’s no such thing as zero-COVID, but this year is the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th party congress, so the farce will continue until the politics no longer dictate tilting at windmills. Then COVID will be allowed to wash through China, as it already has around much of the world. – MacDailyNews, May 9, 2022
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