Is Russia Developing an Anti-Satellite Weapon to Target Starlink?

An anonymous reader shared this report from the Associated Press:

Two NATO-nation intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk's Starlink constellation with destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel, with the aim of reining in Western space superiority that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield. Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called 'zone-effect' weapon would seek to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.

Analysts who haven't seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China, that rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs. Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could steer Moscow away from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said. 'I don't buy it. Like, I really don't,' said Victoria Samson, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization's annual study of anti-satellite systems. 'I would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that.' [Later they suggested the research might just be experimental.]

But the commander of the Canadian military's Space Division, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner, said such Russian work cannot be ruled out in light of previous U.S. allegations that Russia also has been pursuing an indiscriminate nuclear, space-based weapon. 'I can't say I've been briefed on that type of system. But it's not implausible,' he said... The French military's Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings but said, 'We can inform you that Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space.'

The article also points out that this month Russia 'said it has fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, which is capable of hitting low-orbit targets...'

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