Some Private Equity Firms Doomed To Fail as High-Flying Industry Loses Its Way

Private equity firms are facing systemic challenges after a half-century of meteoric growth as attractive takeover targets become scarce and financing costs remain elevated while exits prove increasingly difficult. US buyout funds currently hold more than 12,000 companies that would take approximately nine years to fully distribute at current rates, according to PitchBook data.

The industry holds $1.2 trillion in dry powder and nearly a quarter of that capital was pledged at least four years ago. More than 18,000 private capital funds seek $3.3 trillion from increasingly reluctant investors, Bain estimates. Quarterly returns for US private equity funds fell from 13.5% in Q2 2021 to 0.8% in Q4 2024. Apollo President Jim Zelter described the situation as a 'natural washout' at an investor conference this month. Charles Wilson of Selby Jennings added that 'many PE firms are dead already, they just don't know it' and noted survival depends on how forgiving limited partners -- the entities, including pension funds and endowments, that have invested in private equity firms -- prove when firms return for new fundraising.

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