JPMorgan Says $100K 'Prices Out H-1B' as Indian IT Giants May Accelerate Offshoring With Remote Delivery Already Proven at Scale

The US will charge companies $100,000 for each new H-1B visa starting February 2026 under Project Firewall. According to a new analysis, the fee exceeds average H-1B salaries at firms like TCS where engineers earn $105,000 annually. Previous visa costs ranged from $2,000 to $33,000. Indians hold an estimated 70% of H-1B visas. The fee eliminates five to six years of profit per engineer. Typical engineers deployed to American client sites generate $150,000 to $200,000 in annual billings at 10% operating margins, producing $15,000 to $20,000 in yearly profit. J.P. Morgan states the move 'prices out the utility of H-1B as a source of labor supply.' But it might not be bad for the IT giants.

Major Indian IT firms derive only 0.2% to 2.2% of their workforce from H-1B approvals after years of reducing visa dependence, according to India Dispatch. New approvals alone account for under 0.4% of headcount. Morgan Stanley estimates companies could offset 60% of the financial impact through increased offshoring and selective price increases. The net damage to operating profit would stay contained at around 50 basis points or a 3% to 4% hit to earnings spread across the renewal cycle. Companies plan to accelerate geographic arbitrage by routing more work to India, Canada, and Latin America. Firms can maintain their existing visa holder base while letting normal turnover occur over three to six years.

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