Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?

Fertility rates have fallen to historically low levels [PDF] in virtually all high-income countries due to a fundamental reordering of adult priorities rather than economic factors, according to a new National Bureau of Economic Research study. Economists Melissa Schettini Kearney and Phillip B. Levine analyzed cohort data and found rising childlessness at all observed ages alongside falling completed fertility rates.

Total fertility rates have dropped below replacement level in nearly all OECD countries, with many sustaining rates below 1.5. Some East Asian countries including South Korea, Singapore, and China now have fertility rates at or below one child per woman. The researchers concluded that period-based explanations focused on short-term income or price changes cannot explain the widespread decline. Instead, evidence points to 'shifting priorities' involving changing norms, evolving economic opportunities, and broader social and cultural forces that have diminished parenthood's role in adult lives.

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