RedMonk Ranks Top Programming Languages Over Time - and Considers Ditching Its 'Stack Overflow' Metric

The developer-focused analyst firm RedMonk releases twice-a-year rankings of programming language popularity. This week they also released a handy graph showing the movement of top 20 languages since 2012. Their current rankings for programming language popularity...

1. JavaScript
2. Python
3. Java
4. PHP
5. C#
6. TypeScript
7. CSS
8. C++
9. Ruby
10. C

The chart shows that over the years the rankings really haven't changed much (other than a surge for TypeScript and Python, plus a drop for Ruby). JavaScript has consistently been #1 (except in two early rankings, where it came in behind Java). And in 2020 Java finally slipped from #2 down to #3, falling behind... Python. Python had already overtaken PHP for the #3 spot in 2017, pushing PHP to a steady #4. C# has maintained the #5 spot since 2014 (though with close competition from both C++ and CSS). And since 2021 the next four spots have been held by Ruby, C, Swift, and R.

The only change in the current top 20 since the last ranking 'is Dart dropping from a tie with Rust at 19 into sole possession of 20,' writes RedMonk co-founder Stephen O'Grady. 'In the decade and a half that we have been ranking these languages, this is by far the least movement within the top 20 that we have seen. While this is to some degree attributable to a general stasis that has settled over the rankings in recent years, the extraordinary lack of movement is likely also in part a manifestation of Stack Overflow's decline in query volume...'

The arrival of AI has had a significant and accelerating impact on Stack Overflow, which comprises one half of the data used to both plot and rank languages twice a year... Stack Overflow's value from an observational standpoint is not what it once was, and that has a tangible impact, as we'll see....
As that long time developer site sees fewer questions, it becomes less impactful in terms of driving volatility on its half of the rankings axis, and potentially less suggestive of trends moving forward... [W]e're not yet at a point where Stack Overflow's role in our rankings has been deprecated, but the conversations at least are happening behind the scenes.

'The veracity of the Stack Overflow data is increasingly questionable,' writes RedMonk's research director:
When we use Stack Overflow for programming language rankings we measure how many questions are asked using specific programming language tags... While other pieces, like Matt Asay's AI didn't kill Stack Overflow are right to point out that the decline existed before the advent of AI coding assistants, it is clear that the usage dramatically decreased post 2023 when ChatGPT became widely available. The number of questions asked are now about 10% what they were at Stack Overflow's peak.

'RedMonk is continuing to evaluate the quality of this analysis,' the research director concludes, arguing 'there is value in long-lived data, and seeing trends move over a decade is interesting and worthwhile. On the other hand, at this point half of the data feeding the programming language rankings is increasingly stale and of questionable value on a going-forward basis, and there is as of now no replacement public data set available.

'We'll continue to watch and advise you all on what we see with Stack Overflow's data.'

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