US Solar Boom Continues, But It's Offset By Rising Power Use

In the first 11 months of 2024, solar energy generation in the US grew by 30%, enabling wind and solar combined to surpass coal for the first time. However, as Ars Technica's John Timmer reports, 'U.S. energy demand saw an increase of nearly 3 percent, which is roughly double the amount of additional solar generation.' He continues: 'Should electric use continue to grow at a similar pace, renewable production will have to continue to grow dramatically for a few years before it can simply cover the added demand.' From the report: Another way to look at things is that, between the decline of coal use and added demand, the grid had to generate an additional 136 TW-hr in the first 11 months of 2024. Sixty-three of those were handled by an increase in generation using natural gas; the rest, or slightly more than half, came from emissions-free sources. So, renewable power is now playing a key role in offsetting demand growth. While that's a positive, it also means that renewables are displacing less fossil fuel use than they might.

In addition, some of the growth of small-scale solar won't show up on the grid, since it offset demand locally, and so also reduced some of the demand for fossil fuels. Confusing matters, this number can also include things like community solar, which does end up on the grid; the EIA doesn't break out these numbers. We can expect next year's numbers to also show a large growth in solar production, as the EIA says that the US saw record levels of new solar installations in 2024, with 37 Gigawatts of new capacity. Since some of that came online later in the year, it'll produce considerably more power next year. And, in its latest short-term energy analysis, the EIA expects to see over 20 GW of solar capacity added in each of the next two years. New wind capacity will push that above 30 GW of renewable capacity each of these years.

That growth will, it's expected, more than offset continued growth in demand, although that growth is expected to be somewhat slower than we saw in 2024. It also predicts about 15 GW of coal will be removed from the grid during those two years. So, even without any changes in policy, we're likely to see a very dynamic grid landscape over the next few years. But changes in policy are almost certainly on the way.

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