Sabotage or Accident? American and European Officials Disagree On What Caused Cuts to Two Undersea Cables

CNN reports that investigators 'are trying to crack the mystery of how two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea were cut within hours of each other.' But there's now two competing viewpoints, 'with European officials saying they believe the disruption was an act of sabotage and U.S. officials suggesting it was likely an accident.'
The foreign ministers of Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were 'deeply concerned' about the incident and raised the possibility that it was part of a 'hybrid warfare,' specifically mentioning Russia in their statement. Their assessment was not plucked out of thin air. Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid war against Europe after a string of suspicious incidents, arson attacks, explosions and other acts of sabotage across multiple European countries were traced back to Moscow. And the disruption to the cables came just weeks after the US warned that Moscow was likely to target critical undersea infrastructure. This followed months of suspicious movements of Russian vessels in European waters and the significant beefing up of a dedicated Russian secretive marine unit tasked with surveying the seabed...
But two US officials familiar with the initial assessment of the incident told CNN on Tuesday the damage was not believed to be deliberate activity by Russia or any other nation. Instead, the two officials told CNN they believed it likely caused by an anchor drag from a passing vessel. Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday.

Cloudflare's blog also reminds readers that the two cable cuts resulted in little-to-no observable impact

Cloudflare attributes this largely to 'the significant redundancy and resilience of Internet infrastructure in Europe.' (Their Cloudflare Radar graphs show that after the Sweden-Lithuania cable cut 'there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged.')

Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com illustrates, at least in part, the resilience in connectivity enjoyed by these two countries. In addition to the damaged cable, it shows that Lithuania is connected to neighboring Latvia as well as to the Swedish mainland. Over 20 submarine cables land in Sweden, connecting it to multiple countries across Europe. In addition to the submarine resilience, network providers in both countries can take advantage of terrestrial fiber connections to neighboring countries, such as those illustrated in a European network map from Arelion (formerly Telia), which is only one of the large European backbone providers.

Less than a day later, the C-Lion1 submarine cable, which connects Helsinki, Finland and Rostock Germany was reportedly damaged during the early morning hours of Monday, November 18... In this situation as well, as the Cloudflare Radar graphs below show, there was no apparent impact to traffic volumes in either country at the time that the cables were damaged...

Telegeography's submarinecablemap.com shows that both Finland and Germany also have significant redundancy and resilience from a submarine cable perspective, with over 10 cables landing in Finland, and nearly 10 landing in Germany, including Atlantic Crossing-1 (AC-1), which connects to the United States over two distinct paths. Terrestrial fiber maps from Arelion and eunetworks (as just two examples) show multiple redundant fiber routes within both countries, as well as cross-border routes to other neighboring countries, enabling more resilient Internet connectivity.


See also Does the Internet Route Around Damage?

Read more of this story at Slashdot.