Will the Trump victory get Europe off Apple’s back?

Zooming out, will Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race give Apple more bargaining power when negotiating with European regulators — and to what extent will the ongoing US anti-trust investigation of the company (shaky as it is) gain presidential support? 

Those could be the kind of questions Apple CEO Tim Cook is asking himself this morning as the former President inches toward a new administration in 2025. We can surmise this based on what Trump said during the campaign, when he explained how Cook rang him up to complain about the fines levied against the company by Europe.

What Trump told Cook

Speaking on a podcast, the incoming President alleged that he told Cook he would not let the EU “take advantage of our companies.” If he keeps that promise, this suggests we may have a new entrant in the Europe versus Apple (and hence, Big Tech) ring.  With more regulatory investigation — including the first-ever potentially $38 billion fine under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) — headed Apple’s way in Europe, could the former and future president intervene some how? 

It’s hard to tell; after all, most people have become cynical about politicians and the promises they make (and later break) on the campaign trail. We don’t know yet whether the next Trump administration will keep promises made on the way to the White House, or just cherry pick those it wants to keep and ignore the rest.

If the new government does choose to support American tech business against what Republicans might see as overreach by the EU “deep state,” then the next time Europe decides to take a few billion from Cupertino things might not go quite so easy.

When the gloves are off, what happens?

While it is understandable that Europe desperately wants to blunt foreign behemoths in the tech sector in a strategic attempt to support the growth of its own players in that space, it is possible that plan may fail. After all, as events in Valencia, Spain, suggest, Europe has other problems. 

The thing is, given the inherent nativism of so much of Project Trump, can European regulators afford to play hardball here? Future history will tell. But there is no doubt the answer to these questions does matter to many in the US tech sector, and also, inevitably, to supply chain partners elsewhere. 

One thing that does seem likely is that Apple’s investment in manufacturing in India will continue to accelerate, as the new administration seems set to continue the policies toward China it maintained last time it held power. Cook’s strategic vision to set up shop in India seems likely to pay long-term dividends, as does the considerable work the company has already done and continues to do to repatriate jobs to the US — an ongoing effort on which it has spent hundreds of billions of dollars so far.

(TSMC’s move to begin manufacturing Apple processors in America is another facet of this attempt.)

On the telephone

Cook, meanwhile, will continue to follow his own approach toward engaging with others who hold opinions he perhaps does not share. “Personally, I’ve never found being on the sideline a successful place to be,” he told employees in 2019. 

That approach led him to become one of Trump’s top tech advisors during the first administration. 

Cook’s way of doing things also seems to have won some support from Trump, who recently said he thought that if Cook didn’t run Apple it wouldn’t be nearly as successful as it is now. “I think Tim Cook’s done an amazing job,” he said. “And I’m not knocking Steve Jobs.”  

Trump also seemed impressed at the eye-watering size of Europe’s fines levied against Apple, which he characterized as “a lot.” With all of this in mind, it is perhaps important to note that Trump in 2019 said Cook has a direct line to the (now) newly-re-elected President. 

The art of the deal

Might this contribute to the art of some kind of new EU deal? We don’t know that, either, but as America — and the world — digests the election results, it might yet prove an important moment for Apple’s business, too. European regulators need to think about it.

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