Total Collapse of Japan IR Initiative in View

Akihabara News (Tokyo) — On the fourth anniversary of the enactment of the IR Implementation Act, the complete collapse of this once-heralded initiative to build multi-billion dollar casino resorts in Japan is very much in view.

Even the most bullish analysts have been forced to admit that the process has not gone well, and it is set to deliver far less than what was initially promised. No one is talking any longer about Japan as the second-largest casino gambling market in Asia.

The several dozen international companies aiming to grab a piece of the Japan bonanza have been whittled down to only MGM Resorts International and Casinos Austria International.

Dozens of local governments in Japan that had once floated the notion of becoming hosts for these massive entertainment facilities have also been reduced to only two.

And the national politicians who most keenly championed the IR legislation are, with few exceptions, either dead, retired, or tarnished by bribery or sexual harassment scandals.

Put simply, this controversial initiative is now in a very sorry state.

Four years ago, the IR legislation was pushed through by the ruling party and its allies in the face of unanimous rejection by the opposition parties and against the wishes of a clear majority of Japanese public opinion.

Step-by-step, public disapproval has worn down the proponents. Some pro-IR politicians were defeated at the ballot box, some stymied by opposition in prefectural assemblies and city councils, and others put their fingers to the wind and then bowed out before they damaged their own political careers.

Nagasaki is still in the IR race because the local government did a better job than anyone else in preparing local public opinion to accept casino gambling as a necessary evil to help revive the tourism-based economy.

But they may have shot themselves in the foot by selecting a very weak IR consortium which won’t even make public its financing plans. While not entirely proven, circumstantial evidence suggests that they rejected stronger bids at the last minute largely because the investment money would have come from China.

The Osaka bid is also in trouble. Although the locally-dominant Osaka Restoration Association made the Yumeshima IR a signature policy, much has gone wrong since the high tide in late 2018: delays meant that most synergies with the 2025 World Expo have been lost; the land earmarked for IR development has been found to have multiple contamination and soil liquefaction problems; the burden on local taxpayers has been increased in violation of earlier promises; a defeat on administrative reorganization has induced Osaka Mayor Ichiro Matsui to announce his retirement from politics next year; citizen lawsuits have been filed; and the opposition Liberal Democratic Party has decided to throw in with the opponents of IR development, smelling the blood in the water.

While it is by no means impossible that one or both Nagasaki and Osaka may yet crawl over the finish line, receive an IR license, and built their casino resorts, this is starting to become the less likely scenario.

And should the current process in fact collapse and no IRs are licensed this year, it also seems probable that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will let this unpopular initiative die. Casino resorts seem rather out of step with the spirit of the “New Capitalism” policies which he champions.

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