Markets Head Toward Worst First Half of a Year in Decades

Global markets are set to close out their most bruising first half of a year in decades, leaving investors bracing for the prospect of further losses. From a report: Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates have fueled a monthslong rout that left few markets unscathed. The S&P 500 fell 20% through Wednesday, heading for its worst first half of a year since 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investment-grade bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond exchange-traded fund, lost 11% -- on course for their worst start to a year ever. Stocks and bonds in emerging markets tumbled, hurt by slowing growth. And cryptocurrencies came crashing down, saddling individual investors and hedge funds alike with steep losses.

About the only thing that rose in the first half was commodities prices. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, and U.S. gas prices hit records after the Russia-Ukraine war upended imports from Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer. Now, investors seem to be in agreement about only one thing: More volatility is ahead. That is because central banks from the U.S. to India and New Zealand plan to keep raising interest rates to try to rein in inflation. The moves will likely slow down growth, potentially tipping economies into recession and generating further tumult across markets. 'That's the biggest risk right now -- inflation and the Fed,' said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.

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