Apple shares fall after analyst warns China COVID protests could drop iPhone shipments by 20%

After TFI Asset Management analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on Tuesday slashed his iPhone shipment estimates citing protests in China, Apple shares dropped.
Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro and flagship iPhone 14 Pro Max
Connor Smith for Barron’s:

Kuo wrote Tuesday that he expects total iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max shipments during the fourth quarter to be 15 million to 20 million units lower than expected. Apple shares were down 1.6% to $141.97 following the report.
“The production of the Zhengzhou iPhone plant was significantly affected by laborers’ protests, so I cut the 4Q22 iPhone shipments by about 20% to 70–75 million units,” Kuo wrote.
“It’s an unprecedented situation for Apple as right now [CEO Tim] Cook & Co. are at the mercy of [China’s] zero Covid policy,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s via email. “Apple is losing a billion dollars a week of lost iPhone sales and its piling up as seen in the supply chain train wreck.”

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote in March 2021, “Ming-Chi Kuo is excellent at predicting materials to be used in hardware. We’re not so convinced of his ability to predict unit shipments…”
At that time, Kuo cut his 2021 shipment forecast for AirPods by 30% to 35%, to 75 million to 80 million units.
Later that year, Canalys estimated that Apple’s 2021 AirPods shipments were 86.0 million.
Kuo was off by 8-11 million units.
See also: Tim Cook firmly latched Apple onto China’s CCP teat. What’s his plan for weaning it off? – November 2, 2022
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