Voices in AI – Episode 23: A Conversation with Pedro Domingos
Monday December 4, 2017. 01:00 PM , from The Apple Blog
Today's leading minds talk AI with host Byron Reese
In this episode Byron and Pedro Domingos talk about the master algorithm, machine creativity, and the creation of new jobs in the wake of the AI revolution.
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Byron Reese: This is Voices in AI, brought to you by Gigaom. I’m Byron Reese. Today, our guest is Pedro Domingos, a computer science professor at the University of Washington, and the author of The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake our World. Welcome to the show, Pedro.
Pedro Domingos: Thanks for having me.
What is artificial intelligence?
Artificial intelligence is getting computers to do things that traditionally require human intelligence, like reasoning, problem solving, common sense knowledge, learning, vision, speechand language understanding, planning, decision making and so on.
And is it artificial in the sense that artificial turf is artificial—in that it isn’t really intelligence, it just looks like intelligence? Or is it actually truly intelligent, and it’s just the “artificial” demarks that we created it?
That’s a fun analogy. I hadn’t heard that before. No, I don’t think AI is like artificial turf. I think it’s real intelligence. It’s just intelligence of a different kind. We’re used to thinking of human intelligence, or maybe animal intelligence, as the only intelligence on the planet.
What happens now is a different kind of intelligence. It’s a little bit like, does a submarine really swim? Or is it faking that it swims? Actually, it doesn’t really swim, but it can still travel underwater using very different ideas. Or, you know, does a plane fly even though it doesn’t flap its wings? Well, it doesn’t flap its wings but it does fly. AI is a little bit like that. In some ways, actually, artificial intelligence is intelligent in ways that human intelligence isn’t.
There are many areas where AI exceeds human intelligence, so I would say that they’re different forms of intelligence, but it is very much a form of intelligence.
And how would you describe the state-of-the-art, right now?
In science and technology progress often happens in spurts. There are long periods of slow progress and then there are periods of very sudden, very rapid progress. And we are definitely in one of those periods of very rapid progress in AI, which was a long time in the making.
AI is a field that’s fifty years old, and we had what was called the “AI spring” in the ‘80s, where it looked like it was going to really take off. But then that didn’t really happen at the end of the day, and the problem was that people back then were trying to do AI using what’s called “knowledge engineering.” If I wanted an AI system to do medical diagnosis, I had to interview doctors and program the doctor’s knowledge of diagnosis in the form of rules into the computer, and that didn’t scale.
The thing that has changed recently is that we have a new way to do AI, which is machine learning. Instead of trying to program the computers to do things, the computers program themselves by learning from data. So now what I do for medical diagnosis is I give the computer a database of patient records, what their symptoms and test results were, and what the diagnosis was—and from just that, in thirty seconds, the computer can learn, typically, to do medical diagnosis better than human doctors.
So, thanks to that, thanks to machine learning, we are now seeing a phase of very rapid progress. Also, because the learning algorithms have gotten better—and very importantly: the beauty of machine learning is that, because the intelligence comes from the data, as the data grows exponentially, the AI systems get more intelligent with essentially no extra work from us. So now AI is becoming very powerful. Just on the back of the weight of data that we have.
The other element, of course, is computing power. We need enough computing power to turn all that data into intelligent systems, but we do have those. So the combination of learning algorithms, a lot of data, and a lot of computing power is what is making the current progress happen.
And, how long do you think we can ride that wave? Do you think that machine learning is the path to an AGI, hypothetically? I mean, do we have ten, twenty, thirty, forty more years of running with, kind of, the machine learning ball? Or, do we need another kind of breakthrough?
I think machine learning is definitely the path to artificial general intelligence. But I think there are a few people in AI who would disagree with that. You know, your computer can be as intelligent as you want. If it can’t learn, you know, thirty minutes later it will be falling behind humans.
So, machine learning really is essential to getting to intelligence. In fact, the whole idea of the singularity—it was I. J. Good, back in the ‘50s, who had this idea of a learning machine that could make a machine that learned better than it did. As a result of which, you would have this succession of better and better, more and more intelligent machines until they left humans in the dust.
Now, how long will it take? That’s very hard to predict, precisely because progress is not linear. I think the current bloom of progress at some point will probably plateau. I don’t think we’re on the verge of having general AI. We’ve come a thousand miles, but there’s a million miles more to go. We’re going to need many more breakthroughs, and who knows where those breakthroughs will come from.
In the most optimistic view, maybe this will all happen in the next decade or two, because things will just happen one after another, and we’ll have it very soon. In the more pessimistic view, it’s just too hard and it’ll never happen. If you poll the AI experts, they never just say it’s going to be several decades. But the truth is nobody really knows for sure.
What is kind of interesting is not that people don’t know, and not that their forecasts are kind of all over the map, but that if you look at the extreme estimates, five years are the most aggressive, and then the furthest out are like five hundred years. And what does that suggest to you?
You know, if I went to my cleaners and I said, “Hey, when is my shirt going to be ready?” and they said, “Sometime between five and five hundred days” I would be like, “Okay… something’s going on here.”
Why do you think the opinions are so variant on when we get an AGI?
Well, the cleaners, when they clean your shirt, it’s a very well-known, very repeatable process. They know how long it takes and it’s going to take the same thing this time, right? There are very few unknowns. The problem in AI is that we don’t even know what we don’t know.
We have no idea what we’re missing, so some people think we’re not missing that much. There are the optimists that say, “Oh, we just need more data.” Right? Back in the ‘80s they said, “Oh, we just need more knowledge,” and then, that wasn’t the case. So that’s the optimistic view. The more pessimistic view is that this is a really, really hard problem, and we’ve only scratched the surface. So the uncertainty comes from the fact that we don’t even know what we don’t know.
We certainly don’t know how the brain works, right? We have vague ideas of what different parts of it do, but in terms of how a thought is encoded, we don’t know. Do you think we need to know more about our own intelligence to make an AGI, or is it like, “No, that’s apples and oranges. It doesn’t really matter how the brain works. We’re building an AGI differently”?
Not necessarily. So, there are different schools of thought in AI, and this is part of what I talk about in my book. There is one school of thought in AI, the Connectionists, whose whole agenda is to reverse-engineer the brain. They think that’s the shortest path, you know, “Here’s the competition, go reverse-engineer it, figure out how it works, build it on the computer, and then we’ll have intelligence.” So that is definitely a plausible approach.
I think it’s actually a very difficult approach, precisely because we understand so little about how the brain works. In some ways maybe it’s trying to solve a problem by way of solving the hardest of problems.
And then there are other AI types, namely the Symbolists, whose whole idea is, “No, we don’t need to understand things at that low level. In fact, we’re just going to get lost in the weeds if we try to do that. We have to understand intelligence at a higher-level abstraction, and we’ll get there much sooner that way. So forget how the brain works, that’s really not important.”
Again, the analogy with the brains and airplanes is a good one. What the Symbolists say is, “If we try to make airplanes by building machines that will flap their wings, we’ll never have them. What we need to do is understand the laws of physics and aerodynamics, and then build machines based on that.”
So there are different schools of thought. And I actually think it’s good that there are different schools of thought—and we’ll see who gets there first.
So, you mentioned your book, The Master Algorithm, which is of course required reading in this field. Can you give the listener, who may not be as familiar with it, an overview of what is The Master Algorithm? What are we looking for?
Yeah, sure. So the book is essentially an introduction to machine learning for a general audience. So not just for technical people, but business people, policy makers, just citizens and people who are curious. It talks about the impact that machine learning is already having in the world.
A lot of people think that these things are science fiction, but they are already in their lives and they just don’t know it. It also looks at the future, and what we can expect coming down the line. But mainly, it is an introduction to what I was just describing—that there are five main schools of thought in machine learning.
There are the people who want to reverse-engineer the brain; the ones who want to simulate evolution; the ones who do machine learning by automating the scientific method; the ones who use Bayesian statistics; and the ones who do reasoning by analogy, like people do in everyday life. And then I look at what these different methods can and can’t do.
The name The Master Algorithm comes from this notion that a machine learning algorithm is a master algorithm, in the same sense that a master key opens all doors. A learning algorithm can do all sorts of different things while being the same algorithm.
The is really what’s extraordinary about machine learning… In traditional computer science, if I want the computer to play chess, I have to write a program explaining how to play chess. And if I want the computer to drive a car, I had to write a program explaining how to drive a car. With machine learning, the same learning algorithm can learn to play chess, or drive a car, or do a million different other things—just by learning from the appropriate data.
And each of these tribes of machine learning has its own master algorithm. The more optimistic members of that tribe believe that you can do everything with that master algorithm. My contention in the book is that each of these algorithms is only solving part of the problem. What we need to do is unify them all into a grand theory of machine learning, in the same way that physics has a standard model and biology has a central dogma. And then, that will be the true master algorithm. And I suggest some paths towards that algorithm, and I think we’re actually getting pretty close to it.
One thing I found empowering in the book—and you state it over and over at the beginning—is that the master algorithm is aspirationally accessible for a wide range of people. You basically said, “You, listening to the book, this is still a field where the layman can still have some amount of breakthrough.” Can you speak to that for just a minute?
Absolutely. In fact, that’s part of what got me into machine learning is that—unlike physics or mathematics or biology, which are very mature fields, and you really can only contribute once you have at least a PhD—computer science and AI and machine learning are still very young. So, you could be a kid in a garage and have a great idea that will be transformative. And I hope that that will happen.
I think, even after we find this master algorithm that’s the unification of the five current ones, as we were talking about, we will still be missing some really important, really deep ideas. And I think in some ways, someone coming from outside the field is more likely to find those, than those of us who are professional machine learning researchers, and are already thinking along these tracks of these particular schools of thought.
So, part of my goal in writing the book was to get people who are not machine learning experts thinking about machine learning, and possibly having the next great ideas that will get us closer to AGI.
And, you also point out in the book why you believe that we know that such a thing is possible, and one of your proof points is our intelligence.
Can you speak to that?
Yeah. So this is, of course, one of those very ambitious goals that people should be at the outset a little suspicious of, right? Is this, like the philosopher’s stone or the perpetual motion machine, is it really possible? And again, some people don’t think it’s possible.
I think there’s a number of reasons why I’m pretty sure it is possible, one of which is that we already have existing proofs. One existing proof is our brain, right? As long as you believe in reductionism, which all scientists do, then the way your brain works can be expressed as an algorithm.
And if I program that algorithm into a computer, then that algorithm can learn everything that your brain can. Therefore, in that sense at least, one version of the master algorithm already exists.
Another one is evolution. Evolution created us and all life on Earth. And it is essentially an algorithm, and we roughly understand how that algorithm works; so there is another existing instance of the master algorithm.
Then there are also—besides these more empirical reasons—theoretical reasons which tell us that a master algorithm exists. One of which is that, for each of the five tribes, for their master algorithm there’s a theorem that says: If you give enough data to this algorithm, it can learn any function.
So, at least at that level, we already know that master algorithms exist. Now the question is, how complicated will it be? How hard will it be to get us there? How broadly good would that algorithm be, in terms of learning from a reasonable amount of data in a reasonable amount of time?
You just said all scientists are reductionist. Is that necessarily the case? Like, can you not be a scientist and believe in something like strong emergence, and say, “Actually, you can’t necessarily take the human mind down to individual atoms and kind of reconstruct…” I mean you don’t have to appeal to mysticism to—
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So, what I mean… This is a very good point. In fact, in the sense that you’re talking about, we cannot be reductionists in AI. So what I mean by “reductionist” is just the idea that we can decompose a complex system into simpler, smaller parts that interact and that make up the system.
This is how all of the sciences and engineering works. But this does not preclude the existence of emergent properties. So, the system can be more than the sum of its parts, if it’s non-linear. And very much the brain is a non-linear system. And that’s what we have to do to reach AI. You could even say that machine learning is the science of emergent properties.
In fact, one of the names by which it has been known in some quarters is “self-organizing systems.” And in fact, what makes AI hard, the reason we haven’t already solved it, is that the usual divide-and-conquer strategy which scientists and engineers follow—of dividing problems into smaller and smaller sub-problems, and then solving the sub-problems, and putting the solutions together—tends not to work in AI, because the sub-systems are very strongly coupled together. So, there are emergent properties, but that does not mean that you can’t reduce it to these pieces; it’s just a harder thing to do.
Marvin Minsky, I remember, talked about how we kind of got tricked a little bit by the fact that it takes very few fundamental laws of the universe to understand most of physics. The same with electricity. The same with magnetism. There are very few simple laws to explain everything that happens. And so the hope had been that intelligence would be like that. Are we giving up on that notion?
Yes, so again, there are different views within AI on this. I think at one end there are people who hope we will discover a few laws of AI, and those would solve everything. At the other end of the spectrum there are people like Marvin Minsky who just think that intelligence is a big, big pile of hacks.
He even has a book that’s like, one of these tricks per page. And who knows how many more there are. I think, and most people in AI believe, that it’s somewhere in between. If AI is just a big pile of hacks, we’re never going to get there. And it can’t really be just a pile of hacks, because if the hacks were so powerful as to create intelligence, then you can’t really call them hacks.
On the other hand, you know, you can’t reduce it to a few laws, like Newton’s laws. So this idea of the master algorithm is that, at the end of the day, we will find one algorithm that does intelligence, but that algorithm is not going to be a hundred lines of code. It’s not going to be millions of lines of code either. You know, if the algorithm is thousands or maybe tens of thousands of lines of code, that would be great. It’ll still be a complex theory—much more complex than the ones we have in physics—but it’ll be much, much simpler than what people like Marvin Minsky envisioned.
And if we find the master algorithm, is that good for humanity?
Well, I think it’s good or bad depending on what we do with it. Like all technology, machine learning just gives us more power. You can think of it as a superpower, right? Telephones let us speak at a distance, airplanes let us fly, and machine learning lets us predict things and lets technology adapts automatically to our needs. All of this is good if we use it for good. If we use it for bad, it will be bad, right? The technology itself doesn’t know how it’s going to be used.
Part of my reason for writing this book is that everybody needs to be aware of what machine learning is, and what it can do, so that they can control it. Because, otherwise, machine learning will just give more control to those few who actually know how to use it.
I think if you look at the history of technology, over time, in the end, the good tends to prevail over the bad, which is why we live in a better world today than we did two hundred or two thousand years ago. But we have to make it happen, right? It just doesn’t fall from the tree like that.
And so, in your view, the master algorithm is essentially synonymous with AGI, in the sense that it can figure anything out—it’s a general artificial intelligence.
Would it be conscious?
Yeah, so, by the way: I wouldn’t say the master algorithm is synonymous with AGI. I think it’s the enabler of AGI. Once we have the master algorithm, we’re still going to need to apply it to vision, and language, and reasoning, and all these things. And then we’ll have AGI.
So, one way to think about this is that it’s an 80/20 rule. The master algorithm is the twenty percent of the work that gets you eighty percent of the way, but you still need to do the rest, right? So maybe this is a better way to think about it.
Fair enough. So, I’ll just ask the question a little more directly. What do you think consciousness is?
That’s a very good question. The truth is, what makes consciousness simultaneously so fascinating and so hard is that, at the end of the day, if there is one thing that I know it’s that I’m conscious, right? Descartes said, “I think, therefore I am,” but maybe he should’ve said “I’m conscious, therefore I am.”
The laws of physics, who knows, they might even be wrong. But the fact that I’m conscious right now is absolutely unquestionable. So, everybody knows that about themselves. At the same time, because consciousness is a subjective experience, it doesn’t lend itself to the scientific method. What are reproducible experiments when it comes to consciousness? That’s one aspect.
The other one is that consciousness is a very complex, emergent phenomenon. So, nobody really knows what it is, or understands it, even at a fairly shallow level. Now, the reason we believe others have consciousness… You believe that I have consciousness because you’re a human being, and I’m a human being, so since you have consciousness, I probably have consciousness as well. And this is really the extent of it. For all you know, I could be a robot talking to you right now, passing the Turing test, and not be conscious at all.
Now, what happens with machines? How can we tell whether a machine is conscious or not? This has been grist for the mill of a lot of philosophers over the last few decades. I think the bottom line is that once a computer starts to act like it’s consciousness, we will treat it as if it’s conscious, we will grant it consciousness.
In fact, we already do that, even with very simple chatbots and what not. So, as far as everyday life goes, it actually won’t be long. In some ways, it’ll happen that people treat computers as being conscious, sooner than they treat the computers as being truly intelligent. Because that’s all we need, right? We project these human properties onto things that act humanly, even in the slightest way.
Now, at the end of the day, if you gaze down into that hardware and those circuits, is there really consciousness there? I don’t know if we will ever be able to really answer that question. Right now, I actually don’t see a good way. I think there will come a point at which we understand consciousness well enough—because we understand the brain well enough—that we are fairly confident that we can tell whether something is conscious or not.
And then at that point I think we will apply this criteria to these machines; and these machines—at least the ones that have been designed to be conscious—will pass the tests. So, we will believe that machines have consciousness. But, you know, we can never be totally sure.
And do you believe consciousness is required for a general intellect?
I think there are many kinds of AI, and many AI applications which do not require consciousness. So, for example, if I tell a machine learning system to go solve cancer—that’s one of the things we’d like to do, cure cancer, and machine learning is a very big part of the battle to cure cancer—I don’t think it requires consciousness at all. It requires a lot of searching, and understanding molecular biology, and trying different drugs, maybe designing drugs, etc. So, ninety percent of AI will involve no consciousness at all.
There are some applications of AI, and some types of AI, that will require consciousness, or something indistinguishable from of it. For example, housebots. We would like to have a robot that cooks dinner and does the dishes and makes the bed and what not.
In order to do all those things, the robot has to have all the capabilities of a human, has to integrate all of these senses: vision, and touch, and perception, and hearing and what not; and then make decision based on it. I think this is either going to be consciousness or something indistinguishable from it.
Do you think there will be problems that arise if that happens? Let’s say you build Rosie the Robot, and you don’t know if the robot is conscious or merely acting as if it is. Do you think at that point we have to have this question of, “Are we fine enslaving what could be a conscious machine to plunge our toilet for us?”
Well, that depends on what you consider enslaving, right? So, one way to look at this—and it’s the way I look at it—is that these are still just machines, right? Just because they have consciousness doesn’t mean that they have human rights. Human rights are for humans. I don’t think there’s such thing as robot rights.
The deeper question here is, what gives something rights? One school of thought is that it’s the ability to suffer that gives you rights, and therefore animals should have rights. But, if you think about it historically, the idea of having animal rights… even fifty years ago would’ve seemed absurd. So, by the same standard, maybe fifty years from now, people will want to have robot rights. In fact, there are some people already talking about it.
I think it’s a very strange idea. And often people talk about, “Oh, well, will the machines be our friends or will they be our slaves? Will they be our equals? Will they be inferior?” Actually, I think this whole way of framing things is mistaken. You know, the robots will be neither our equals nor our slaves. They will be our extensions, right?
Robots are technology, they augment us. I think it’s not so much that the machines will be conscious, but that through machines we will have a bigger consciousness—in the same way that, for example, the Internet already gives us a bigger consciousness than we had when there was no Internet.
So, discussing robots leads us to a topic that’s on the news literally every day, which is the prospect that automation and technological advances will eliminate jobs faster than it can create new ones. Or, it will eliminate jobs and replace them with inaccessible kinds of jobs. What do you think about that? What do you think the future holds?
I think we have to distinguish between the near term, by which I mean the next ten years or so, and the long term. In the near term, I think some jobs will disappear, just like jobs have disappeared to automation in the past. AI is really automation on steroids. So I think what’s going to happen in the near term is not so different from what has happened in the past.
Some jobs will be automated, so some jobs will disappear, but many new jobs will appear as well. It’s always easier to see the jobs which disappear than the ones that appear. Think for example of being an app developer. There’s millions of people today who make a living today being an app developer.
Ten years ago that job didn’t exist. Fifty years ago you couldn’t even imagine that job. Two hundred years ago, ninety-something percent of Americans were farmers, and then farming got automated. Now today only two percent of Americans work in agriculture. That doesn’t mean that the other ninety-eight percent are unemployed. They’re just doing all these jobs that people couldn’t even imagine before.
I think a lot of that is what’s going to happen here. We will see entirely new job categories appear. We will also see, on a more mundane level, more demand for lots of existing jobs. For example, I think truck drivers should be worried about the future of their jobs, because self-driving trucks are coming, so there will be an endpoint.
There are many millions of truck drivers in the US alone. It’s one of the most widespread occupations. But now, what will they do? People say, “Oh, you can’t turn truck drivers into programmers.” Well, you don’t have to turn them into programmers. Think about what’s going to happen…
Because trucks are now self-driving, goods will cost less. Goods will cost less, so people will have more money in their pockets, and they will spend it on other things—like, for example, having bigger, better houses. And therefore, there will be more demand for construction workers, and some of these truck drivers will become construction workers and so on.
You know, having said all that, I think that in the near term the most important thing that’s going to happen to jobs is actually—neither the ones that will disappear, nor the ones that will appear—most jobs will be transformed by AI. The way I do my job will change because some parts will become automated. But now I will be able to do more things better, or more than I could do before, when I didn’t have the automation. So, really the question everybody needs to think about is, what parts of my job can I automate? Really, the best way to protect your job from automation is to automate it yourself, and then ask, “What can I do using these machine learning tools?”
Automation is like having a horse. You don’t try to outrun a horse; you ride the horse. And we have to ride automation, to do our jobs better and in more ways than we can now.
So, it doesn’t sound like you’re all that pessimistic about the future of employment?
I’m optimistic, but I also worry. I think that’s a good combination. I think if we’re pessimistic we’ll never do anything. Again, if you look at the history of technology, the optimists at the end of the day are the ones who made the world a better place, not the pessimists.
But at the same time, naïve optimism is very dangerous, right? We need to worry continuously about all the things that could go wrong, and make sure that they don’t go wrong. So I think that a combination of optimism and worry is the right one to have.
Some people say we’ll find a way to merge, mentally, with the AI. Is that even a valid question? And if so, what do you think of it?
I think that’s what’s going to happen. In fact, it’s already happening. We are going to merge with our machines step-by-step. You know, like a computer is a machine that is closer to us than a television. A smartphone is closer to us than a desktop is, and the laptop is somewhere in between.
And we’re already starting to see these things such as Google Glass and augmented reality, where in essence the computer is extending our senses, and extending our part to do things. Elon Musk has this company that is going to create an interface between neurons and computers, and in fact, in research labs this already exists.
I have colleagues that work on that. They’re called brain-computer interfaces. So, step-by-step, right? The way to think about this is, we are cyborgs, right? Human beings are actually the cyborg species. From day one, we were of one with our technology.
Even our physiology would be different if we couldn’t do things like light fires and throw spears. So this has always been an ongoing process. Part of us is technology, and that will become more and more so in the future. Also with things like the Internet, we are connecting ourselves into a bigger, you know… Humanity itself is an emergent phenomenon, and having the Internet and computers allows a greater level to emerge.
And I think exactly how this happened and when, of course, is up for grabs; but that’s the way things are going.
You mentioned in passing a minute ago the singularity. Do you believe that that is what will happen, as it’s commonly thought? That there is going to be this kind of point, in the reasonably near future, from which we cannot see anything beyond it? Because we don’t have any frame of reference?
I don’t believe that the singularity will happen in those terms. So this idea of exponentially increasing progress that goes on forever… that’s not going to happen, because it’s physically impossible, right? No exponential goes on forever. It always flattens out sooner or later.
All exponentials are really what are called “S curves” in disguise. They go up faster and faster—and this is how all previous technology waves have looked—but then they flatten out, and finally they plateau.
Also, this notion that at some point things will become completely incomprehensible for us… I don’t believe that either, because there will always be parts that we understand, number one; and there are limits to what any intelligence can do, human or non-human.
By that stance, the singularity has already happened. A hundred years ago, the most advanced technology was maybe something like a car, right? And I could understand every part of how a car works, completely. Today we already have technology, like the computer systems that we have today, and nobody understands that whole system. Different people understand different parts.
With machine learning in particular, the thing that’s notable about machine learning algorithms is that they can do very complex things very well, and we have no idea how they’re doing them. And yet, we are comfortable with that, because we don’t necessarily care about the details of how it is accomplished, we just care whether the medical diagnosis was correct, or the patient’s cancer was cured, or the car is driving correctly. So I think this notion of the singularity is a little bit off.
Having said that, we are currently in the middle of one of these S curves. We are seeing very rapid progress, and by the time this has run its course, the world will be a very, very different place from what it is today.
All these things that we’ve been talking about. We will have intelligent machines surrounding us. Not just humanoid machines but intelligence on tap, right? In the same way that today you can use electricity for whatever you want just by plugging into a socket, you will be able to plug into intelligence.
And indeed, the leading tech companies are already trying to make this happen. So there will be all these things which the greater intelligence enables. Everybody will have a home robot in the same way that they have a car. We will have this whole process that the Internet is enabling, and that the intelligence on top of the Internet is enabling, and the Internet of things, and so on.
There will something like this larger emergent being, if you will, that’s not just individual human beings or just societies. But again, it’s hard to picture exactly what that would be, but this is going to happen.
You know, it always makes the news when an artificial intelligence masters some game, right? We all know the list: you had chess, and then you had Jeopardy, of course, and then you had AlphaGo, and then recently you had poker. And I get that games are kind of a natural place, because I guess it’s a confined universe with very rigid, specific rules, and a lot of training data for teaching it how to function in that.
Are there types of problems that machine learning isn’t suited to solve? I mean, just kind of philosophically—it doesn’t matter how good your algorithms are, or how much data you have, or how fast a computer is—this is not the way to solve that particular problem.
Well, certainly some problems are much harder than others, and—as you say—games are easier in the sense that they are these very constrained, artificial universes. And that’s why AI can do so well in them. In fact, the summary of what machine learning and AI are good for today, is that they are good for these tasks which are somewhat well-defined and constrained.
What people are much better at are things that require knowledge of the world, they require common sense, they require integrating lots of different information. We’re not there yet. We don’t have the learning algorithms that can do that.
So the learning algorithms that we have today are certainly good for some things, but not others. But again, if we have the master algorithm then we will be able to do all these things, and we are making progress towards that, so, we’ll see.
Any time I see a chatbot or something that’s trying to pass the Turing test, I always type the same first question, which is: “Which is bigger, a nickel or the sun?” And not a single one of them has ever answered it correctly.
Well, exactly, because they don’t have common sense knowledge. It’s amazing what computers can do in some ways, and it’s amazing what they can’t do in others—like these really simple pieces of common sense logic. In a way, one of the big lessons that we’ve learned in AI is that automating the job of a doctor or a lawyer is actually easy.
What is very hard to do with AI is what a three-year-old can do. If we could have a robot baby that can do what a one-year-old can do, and learn the same way, we would have solved AI. It’s much, much harder to do those things; things that we take for granted, like picking up an object, for example, or like walking around without tripping. We take this for granted because evolution spent five hundred million years developing it. It’s extremely sophisticated, but for us it’s below the conscious level.
The things for us that we are conscious of, and that we have to go to college for, well, we’re not very good at them; we just learned to do them recently. Those, the computers can do much better. So, in some ways in AI, it’s the hard things that are easy and the easy things that are hard.
Does it mean anything if something finally passes the Turing test? And if so, when do you think that might happen? When will it say, “Well, the sun is clearly bigger than a nickel”?
Well, with all due respect to Alan Turing—who was a great genius and an AI pioneer—most people in AI, including me, believe that the Turing test is actually a bad idea. The reason the Turing test is a bad idea is that it confuses being intelligent with being human. This idea that you can prove that you’re intelligent by fooling a human into thinking you’re a human is very weird, if you think about it. It’s like saying an airplane doesn’t fly until it can fool birds into thinking it’s a bird. That doesn’t make any sense.
True intelligence can take many forms, not necessarily the human form. So, in some ways we don’t need to pass the Turing test to have AI. And in other ways, the Turing test is too easy to pass, and by some standards has already been passed by systems that no one would call intelligent. Talking with someone for five minutes and fooling them into thinking you’re a human is actually not that hard, because humans are remarkably adept at projecting humanity into anything that acts human.
In fact, even in the ‘60s there was this famous thing called ELIZA, that basically just picked up keywords in what you said and gave back these canned responses. And if you talked to ELIZA for five minutes, you’d actually think that it was a human.
Although Weizenbaum’s observation was, even when people knew ELIZA was just a program, they still formed emotional attachments to it, and that’s what he found so disturbing.
Exactly, so human beings have this uncanny ability to treat things as human, because that’s the only reference point that we have, right? It’s this whole idea of reasoning by analogy. If we have something that behaves even a little bit like a human—because there’s nothing else in the universe to compare it to—we start treating it more like a human and project more human qualities into it.
And, by the way, this is something that, once companies start making bots—this is already happening with chatbots like Siri and Cortana and what not, and it’ll happen even more so with home robots—there’s going to be a race to make the robots more and more humanlike. Because if you form an emotional attachment to my product, that’s what I want, right? I’ll sell more of it, and for a higher price, and so on and so forth. So, we’re going to see uncannily human-like robots and AIs—whether this is a good or bad things is another matter.
What do you think creativity is? And would an AGI, by definition, be creative, right? It could write a sonnet, or…
Yeah, an AGI, by definition, would be creative. One thing that you hear a lot these days, and that unfortunately is incorrect, is that, “Oh, we can automate these menial, routine jobs, but creativity is this deeply human thing that will never be automated.” And, this is kind of like a superficially-plausible notion, but, in fact, there are already examples of, for example, computers that can compose music.
There is this guy, David Cope, a professor at UC Santa Cruz—he has a computer program that will create music in the style of the composer of your choice. And he does this test where he plays a piece by Mozart, a piece by a human composer imitating Mozart, and a piece by his computer—by his system. And he did this at a conference that I was in, and he asked people to vote for which one was the real Amadeus, and the real one won, but the second place was actually the computer. So a computer can already write Mozart better than a professional, highly-educated human composer can.
Computers have made paintings that are actually quite beautiful and striking, many of them. Computers these days write news stories. There’s this company called Narrative Fiction that will write news stories for you. And the likes of Forbes or Fortune—I forget which one it is—actually published some of the things that they write. So it’s not a novel yet, but we will get there.
And also, in other areas, like for example chess and AlphaGo are notable examples… Both Kasparov and Lee Sedol, when they were beaten by the computer, had this remarkable reaction saying, “Wow, the computer was so creative. It came up with these moves that I would never have thought of, that seemed dumb at first but turned out to be absolutely brilliant.”
And computers have done things in mathematics, theorems and proofs and etc., all of which, if done by humans, would be considered highly creative. So, automating creativity is actually not that hard.
It’s funny, when Kasparov first said it seemed creative, what he was implying was that IBM cheated, that people had intervened. And IBM hadn’t cheated. But, that’s a testament to just how—
—There were actually two phases, right? He said that at first, so he was suspicious; because, again, how could something not human actually be doing that? But then later, after the match when he had lost and so on, if you remember, there was this move that Deep Blue made that seemed like a crazy move, and Kasparov said, like, “I could smell a new kind of intelligence playing against me.”
Which is very interesting for us AI-types, because we know exactly what was going on, right? It was these, you know, search algorithms and a whole bunch of technology that we understand fairly well. It’s interesting that from the outside this just seemed like a new kind of intelligence, and maybe it is.
He also said, “At least it didn’t enjoy beating me.” Which I guess someday, though, it may, right?
Oh, yeah, yeah! And you know that could happen depending on how we build them, right? The other very interesting thing that happened in that match—and again, I think it’s symptomatic—is that Kasparov is someone who always won by basically intimidating his opponents into submission. They just got scared of him, and then he beat them.
But the thing that happened with Deep Blue, was that Deep Blue couldn’t be intimidated by him; it was just a machine, right? As a result of which, Kasparov himself—suddenly, for the first time in his life, probably—became insecure. And then, after he lost that game, in the following game, he actually made these mistakes that he would never make, because he had suddenly become insecure.
Foreboding, isn’t it? We talked about emergence a couple of times. There’s the Gaia hypothesis that maybe all of the life on our planet has an emergent property: some kind of an intelligence that we can’t perceive, any more than our cells can perceive us.
Do you have any thoughts on that? And do you have any thoughts on if, eventually, the Internet could just become emergent—an emergent consciousness?
Right. Like most scientists, I don’t believe in the Gaia hypothesis, in the sense that the Earth, as it is, does not have enough self-regulating ability to achieve the homeostasis that living beings do. In fact, sometimes you get these negative feedback cycles where things actually go very wrong. So, most scientists don’t believe in the Gaia hypothesis for Earth today.
Now, what I think—and a lot of other people think this is the case—is that maybe the Gaia hypothesis will be true in the future. Because as the Internet expands, and the Internet of Things—with sensors all over the place, literally all over the planet—and a lot of actions continue being taken based on those sensors to, among other things, preserve us and presumably other kinds of life on Earth… I think if we fast-forward a hundred years, there’s a very good chance that Earth will look like Gaia, but it will be a Gaia that is technological, as opposed to just biological.
And in fact, I don’t think that there’s an opposition between technology and biology. I think technology will just be the extension of biology by other means. It’s biology that’s made by us. I mean, we’re creatures, and so the things that we make are also biology, in that sense.
So if you look at it that way, maybe what has happened is that since the very beginning, Earth has been evolving towards Gaia, we just haven’t gotten there yet. But technology is very much part of getting there.
What do you think of the OpenAI initiative?
The OpenAI initiative’s goal is to do AI for the common good. Because, you know, people like Elon Musk and Sam Altman were afraid that because the biggest quantity of AI research is being done inside companies—like Google and Facebook and Microsoft and Amazon and what not—it would be owned by them. And AI is very powerful, so it’s dangerous if AI is just owned by these companies.
So, their goal is to do AI research that is going to be open, hence the name, and available to everybody. I think this is a great agenda, so I very much agree with trying to do that. I think there’s nothing wrong with having a lot of AI research in companies, but I think it’s important that there also be AI research that is in the public domain. Universities are one aspect of doing that, something like OpenAI is another example, something like the Allen Institute for AI is another example of doing AI for the public good in this way. So, I think this is a good agenda.
What they’re going to do exactly, and what their chances of succeeding are, and how their style of AI will compare to the styles of AI that are being produced by these other labs, whether industry or academia, is something that remains to be seen. But I’m curious to see what they get out of it.
The worry from some people is that… They make it analogous to a nuclear weapon, in that if you say, “We don’t know how to build one, but we can get 99% of the way there, and we’re going to share that with everybody on the planet.” And then you hope that the last little bit that makes it an AGI isn’t a bad actor of some kind. Does that make sense to you?
Yeah, yeah… I understand the analogy, but you have to remember that AI and nuclear weapons are very different for a couple of reasons. One is that nuclear weapons are essentially destructive things, right? Yeah, you can turn them into nuclear power, but they were invented to blow things up.
Whereas AI is a tool that we use to do all sorts of things, like diagnose diseases and place ads on webpages, and things from big to small. The thing is, the knowledge to build a nuclear bomb is actually not that hard to come by. Fortunately, what is very hard to come by is the enriched uranium, or plutonium, to build the bomb.
That’s actually what keeps any terrorist group from building a bomb. It’s not the lack of knowledge, it’s the lack of the materials. Now, in AI it’s actually very different. You just need computing power, and you can just plug into the cloud and get that computing power. AI is just algorithms. It’s already accessible. Lots of people can use it for whatever they want.
In a way, the safety lies in actually having AI in the hands of everybody, so that it’s not in the hands of a few. If only one person or one company had access to the master algorithm, they would be too powerful. If everybody has access to the master algorithm then there will be competition, there will be collaboration. There will be like a whole ecosystem of things that happen, and we will be safer that way, just as we are with the economy as it is. But, having said that, we will need something like an AI police.
William Gibson in Neuromancer had this thing called the Turing police, right? The Turing police are AIs whose job is to police the other AIs, to make sure that they don’t go bad, or that they get stopped when they go bad. And this is no different from what already happens. We have highways, and bank robbers can use the highways to get away. That’s no reason to not have highways, but of course the police also need to have cars so they can catch the robbers, so I think it’s going to be a similar thing with AI.
When I do these chats with people in AI, science fiction writers always come up. They always reference them, they always have their favorites and what not. Do you have any books, movies, TV shows or anything like that that you watch them and you go, “Yes, that could happen”?
Unfortunately, a lot of the depictions of AI and robots in movies and TV shows is not very realistic, because the computers and robots are really just humans in disguise. This is how you make an interesting story, is by making the robots act like humans. They have evil plans to take over the world, or somebody falls in love with them, and things like that—and that’s how you make an interesting movie.
But real AIs, as we were talking about, are very different than that. A lot of the movies that people associate with AI—like Terminator, for example—are really not stuff that will happen, but with a provision that science fiction is a great source of self-fulfilling prophecies, right? People read those things and then they try to make them happen. So, who knows.
Having said that, what is an example of a movie depicting AI that I think could happen, and is fairly interesting and realistic? Well, one example is the movie Her. The movie Her is basically about a virtual assistant that is very human-like, and ten years ago that would’ve been a very strange movie. These days we already have things like Siri, and Cortana, and Google Now, which are, of course, still a far cry from Her. But I think we’re going to get closer and closer to that.
And final question: What are you working on, and are you going to write another book? What keeps you busy?
Two things: I think we are pretty close to unifying those five master algorithms, and I’m still working on that. That’s what I’ve been working on for the last ten years. And I think we’re almost there. I think once we’re there, the next thing is that, as we’ve been talking about, that’s not going to be enough. So we need something else.
I think we need something beyond the existing five paradigms we have, and I’m working on a new type of learning that I hope will actually take us beyond what those five could do. Some people have jokingly called it the sixth paradigm, and maybe my next book will be called The Sixth Paradigm. That makes it sound like a Dan Brown novel, but that’s definitely something that I’m working on.
When you say you think the master algorithm is almost ready… Will there be a “ta-da” moment, like, here it is? Or, is it kind of a gradualism?
It’s a gradual thing. Look at physics, they’ve unified three of the forces—electromagnetism and the strong and weak forces, but they still haven’t unified gravity with them. There are proposals like string theory to do that.
These “a-ha” moments often only happen in retrospect. People propose a theory, and then maybe it gets tested, and then maybe it gets revised, and then finally when all the pieces are in place people go, “Oh, wow.” And I think it’s going to be like that with the master algorithm as well.
We have candidates, we have ways of putting these pieces together. It still remains to be seen whether they can do all the things that we want, and how well they will scale. Scaling is very important, because if it’s not scalable then it’s not really solving the problem, right? So, we’ll see.
All right, well thank you so much for being on the show.
Thanks for having me, this was great!
Byron explores issues around artificial intelligence and conscious computers in his upcoming book The Fourth Age, to be published in April by Atria, an imprint of Simon & Schuster. Pre-order a copy here.
Byron explores issues around artificial intelligence and conscious computers in his upcoming book The Fourth Age, to be published in April by Atria, an imprint of Simon & Schuster. Pre-order a copy here.
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